QCP Election Commentary - 5 Nov 24 The day has finally arrived. Across stocks, treasuries, and crypto, market anxiety is palpable ahead of what promises to be one of the closest U.S. presidential races in history. The "Trump trade"—encompassing long positions in the dollar, crypto, and bets on higher Treasury yields—has gained traction leading up to the election, buoyed by Trump's lead in prediction markets. However, a Harris victory could potentially reverse these gains, triggering significant market swings overnight. The crypto market is currently pricing in a +/-3.5% in BTC spot movement on the election night itself. Yet, traders may be underpricing post-election risk: the current lack of volatility premium beyond the November 8 expiry suggests that markets expect a quick resolution, possibly underestimating potential delays or contested outcomes. Volatility is almost certain... Recall that in 2016, when Trump claimed a surprise victory, U.S. futures initially plunged before rebounding, with the two…