QCP : 마침내 그날이 왔습니다. 주식, 국채, 암호화폐를 통틀어 역사상 가장 치열한 미국 대선 중 하나가 될 것으로 예상되는 선거를 앞두고 시장 불안이 뚜렷하게 느껴집니다. 비트코인은 여전히 "트럼프 거래"로 여겨지고 있습니다. 월요일에 현물 ETF에서 상당한 자금 유출이 발생하면서 BTC 현물 가격이 하락했는데, 이는 해리스가 아이오와에서 근소한 우위를 점하고 있다는 여론 조사와 일치합니다.
https://t.me/QCPbroadcast/1353
QCP Election Commentary - 5 Nov 24
The day has finally arrived. Across stocks, treasuries, and crypto, market anxiety is palpable ahead of what promises to be one of the closest U.S. presidential races in history.
The "Trump trade"—encompassing long positions in the dollar, crypto, and bets on higher Treasury yields—has gained traction leading up to the election, buoyed by Trump's lead in prediction markets. However, a Harris victory could potentially reverse these gains, triggering significant market swings overnight.
The crypto market is currently pricing in a +/-3.5% in BTC spot movement on the election night itself. Yet, traders may be underpricing post-election risk: the current lack of volatility premium beyond the November 8 expiry suggests that markets expect a quick resolution, possibly underestimating potential delays or contested outcomes.
Volatility is almost certain...
Recall that in 2016, when Trump claimed a surprise victory, U.S. futures initially plunged before rebounding, with the two…
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