QCP: 4k와 100k 수준은 ETH와 BTC의 모래 위의 선입니다. Perp 자금 조달은 Deribit에서 평평하고 주요 거래소에서 평소보다 약간 높아서 꼭대기로 플러시할 가능성이 적습니다. 우리는 여전히 구조적으로 강세이지만 현물은 휴일 시즌의 나머지 기간 동안 여기에서 범위가 있을 가능성이 높습니다.
https://t.me/QCPbroadcast/1376
QCP Asia Colour - 9 December 2024
- The 4k and 100k levels are lines in the sand for ETH and BTC. The majors breached these key levels last week before trading lower for most of today.
- Looking at the tenor with the highest OI, 27DEC24, those levels coincide with the strikes with the highest OI: ETH-27DEC24-4k (90k contracts) and BTC-27DEC24-100k (16k contracts). So, will there be a squeeze higher if spot trades higher as dealers look to cover?
- We’re less inclined to think so. Just today, we saw takers taking profit on their long BTC-27DEC24-100k-C positions and possibly rolling them out to March (130k–150k). This indicates there should be ample supply of topside gamma. Furthermore, perp funding is flattish on Deribit and slightly higher than usual on major exchanges, making a flush to the topside less likely.
- Although we’re still structurally bullish, spot is likely to range here for the remainder of the holiday season. Historically, ETH does not usually put in a new all-time high until January of the…