QCP: 어제 세일러가 BTC 매수 추적기를 다시 게시했는데 이는 또 다른 임박한 매수 라운드를 알리는 신호일 수 있으며, 가격을 더욱 뒷받침할 수 있습니다. 2월부터 상황이 좋아지기 시작하기 전에 단기적으로 현물이 이 범위에 머물 것으로 예상할 수 있습니다. 옵션 흐름도 비슷한 감정을 반영하고 있습니다.
https://t.me/QCPbroadcast/1385
QCP Asia Colour – 30 December 24
As expected, we saw the typical quarter-end post-expiry vol selloff as vols are 2-3 vols lower since Friday's record-breaking expiry.
Although BTC is consolidating near the bottom of the 1-mth range and is flattish returns on the month, both BTC and ETH performed decently in Q4: BTC is up 48% while ETH is up 30%. However it may be a little premature to sum up the quarter for now. Just yesterday, Saylor posted his BTC purchase tracker again which could signal another round of imminent purchases, supporting prices further.
Despite the possibility of another round of purchases, we are skeptical of any New Year fireworks especially with funding healthy. January's average returns (+3.3%) are relatively similar to December's (+4.8%), and we could expect spot to remain in this range in the near-term before things start to pick from Feb onwards.
Options flows are also reflecting similar sentiments with frontend vols drifting lower and risk-reversals most bid for Calls in March, partly…
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