QCP: 주요 PPI와 CPI 데이터가 곧 나옵니다. 시장이 장기간 높은 금리 환경의 현실에 적응하기 시작하면서 잠재적인 놀라움이 상승할 수 있다고 생각합니다. 일부는 금리 인상 가능성을 고려하기도 합니다. 그래도 촉매에 대한 희망은 있습니다. 보고서에 따르면 트럼프는 첫날에 행정 명령에 서명하여 "은행 해체"를 다루고 논란이 되는 암호화폐 회계 정책을 폐지할 수 있으며, 이는 시장에 활력을 불어넣을 수 있습니다.
https://t.me/QCPbroadcast/1393
QCP Asia Colour – 14 January 25
The global market has caught up with the recalibration of the Fed rate cut outlook. The 10Y yield surged to 4.8%, its highest since late 2023, with markets now pricing no rate cuts until October. Equities futures opened 1.5% lower, sending Bitcoin below $90k before a steady recovery to above $95k.
What’s Next?
Key PPI and CPI data are on the horizon. We think potential surprises could come on the upside, as markets begin to adjust to the reality of a prolonged higher-rate environment, with some even entertaining the possibility of a rate hike.
The momentum in rising yields could test financial market resilience. In crypto, cautious sentiment is evident in BTC options flows, with puts rolled below the key $90k support. Front-end vols and flies remain elevated, while the VIX stays high at 18.68 - suggesting volatility to persist through January.
Still, there’s hope for a catalyst. Reports suggest Trump may sign executive orders on day one, addressing “de-banking” and repealing…