QCP: 이번 수요일에 깜짝 인하가 있을 것으로 예상하지는 않지만 파월의 비둘기파적 신호는 상승 모멘텀을 촉발하는 촉매가 될 수 있습니다. 자본은 나스닥과 비트코인과 같은 트럼프 주도 모멘텀 거래에서 빠져나와 오랫동안 간과되었던 유럽과 중국 시장으로 이동할 수 있습니다.
https://t.me/QCPbroadcast/1425
QCP Asia Colour - 18 March 25
Will Powell blink first? A rate cut this Wednesday remains highly unlikely as the U.S. pivots away from fiscal dominance, where government spending fueled growth, toward Trump's push for deficit reduction. The shift puts the burden back on monetary policy. While we do not anticipate a surprise cut, any dovish signal from Powell could be the catalyst that sparks upside momentum.
Macro volatility has eased slightly, with the VIX retreating to around 20 and BTC vols ticking lower as it remains range-bound between $80,000 and $85,000. In the absence of fresh tariff headlines, geopolitics has returned to the forefront. Israel's renewed strikes on Gaza following a temporary truce have pushed gold soaring past $3,000, while BTC continues to exhibit a negative correlation.
Germany is heading into a key vote, while fiscal expansions in both Germany and China have powered stronger equity performance relative to the U.S. This raises a crucial question: is this simply broad risk reduction…