QCP: 미국에서는 해방의 날이며, 트럼프는 오늘 밤 로즈 가든에서 관세를 일제히 부과할 것으로 예상됩니다. 단기적으로는 모든 위험 자산이 압박을 받을 것으로 예상합니다. 전반적인 거시적 상황이 개선될 때까지는 상승 움직임을 쫓지 않습니다.
https://t.me/QCPbroadcast/1433
QCP Asia Colour - 2 April 25
It's Liberation Day in the U.S. and Trump is expected to unleash a volley of tariffs later tonight at the Rose Garden. While there was some semblance of clarity yesterday, visibility remains low. To borrow from the president's own playbook, last-minute brinksmanship was never a key chapter in "The Art of the Deal".
The latest wave of tariffs appear to target a broad swatch of countries, including Japan, China, Canada, and the EU. The U.S. seems increasingly intent on isolating itself in pursuit of more favourable trading terms, but early indications suggest that key counterparts aren't inclined to concede. In fact, the opposite may be happening. Rather than fracturing under pressure, global players appear to be closing ranks. Just yesterday, officials from China, Japan and Korea convened to explore deeper regional trade cooperation.
Market implications? In the short term, we expect all risk assets to remain under pressure. But as the new status quo beds in, we could witness pockets…